Using Twitter to Predict Elections

>> >>PEGGY: SAN DIEGO STATE RESEARCHERS COLLECTED DATA FROM TWITTER, FACEBOOK, AND WEBSITES TO ACCURATELY PRE PREDICT THE OUTCOME OF THE MOST RECENT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THAT'S NOT ALL. JOINING ME TO TALK ABOUT HOW THEY USE SOCIAL MEDIA TO PREDICT THE FUTURE ARE MY GUESTS DR.ÊDIPAK GUPTA, DISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, AND DR.ÊMING TSOU, PROFESSOR OF GEOGRAPHY AT SDSU. PROFESSOR GUPTA, CAN YOU GIVE US AN OVERVIEW OF HOW THIS MAPPING IDEAS PROJECT WORKS. >> >>DIPAK GUPTA: IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, IDEAS SPREAD THROUGH THROUGH THE WORLD. AND THEY ALWAYS TAKE DEFINITE PATHS FROM FASHION TO POLITICAL EXTREMISM, FOR IDEAS FOR GOOD OR BAD, THEY SPREAD THROUGH THE WORLD. THIS PROJECT IS DESIGNED TO CAPTURE HOW AND WHY THEY SPREAD, AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE REST OF US. >> >>PEGGY: AND DR.ÊTSOU, YOU WERE ABLE TO CAPTURE THIS VIAÊ WELL, FIRST, YOU WERE ABLE TO CAPTURE IT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA; CORRECT? >> >>MING-HSAING TSOU: YES. >> >>PEGGY: WHAT TYPES? >> >>MING-HSAING TSOU: WE USE TWITTER BECAUSE IT IS THE MOST OPEN ACCESS FORMAT WE CAN WRITE A PROGRAM TO ACCESS HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF TWEETS, EVERY SINGLE HOURS WITHOUT THE PROGRAM. >> >>PEGGY: BRINGING YOU LOTS OF DOT DATA. PART OF THAT DATA, YOU USED TO TRACK AND PREDICT THE SPREAD OF WHOOPING COUGH THIS PAST FALL IN 2012 ACROSS THE NATION. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THIS MAP THAT YOU ACTUALLY WERE ABLE TO PRODUCE BECAUSE OF IT. WHAT ARE WE LOOKING AT RIGHT NOW? >> >>MING-HSAING TSOU: THE PROJECT COLLECTED OVER A THOUSAND WEBSITES CONTAINING THE WHOOPING COUGH, THE KEY WORD, AND WE AGGREGATE THOSE WEBSITES USING THEIR GEO LOCATION. NOW YOU SEE IT ON THE MAP. THE RED COLOR INDICATES THE WEBSITE IS TALKING ABOUT WHOOPING COUGH. YOU CAN SEE THIS CITY IS ACTUALLY VERY INTENSIVE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE TOPIC WHOOPING COUGH. WE REALIZED WHEN WE CHANGE THE WEEK, EVERY WEEK, DIFFERENT ATTENTION WAS FALLINGÊ ONE WEEK, MAYBE THEA CDC ANNOUNCED THE WHOOPING COUGH ALERT, EVERYBODY'S TALKING ABOUT WHOOPING COUGH IN EVERY CITY. BUT MAYBEÊ WASHINGTON STATE, THERE WAS A LOW WHOOPING COUGH OUT BREAK AND THE LOCAL MEDIA WERE EMPHASIZING THAT. >> >>PEGGY: YOU WERE ABLE TO TREND, NOT ONLY JUST TREND WHAT THE DISCUSSION WAS, BUT THERE WERE ACTUAL CASES GOING ON THERE. DR.ÊGUPTA, WHAT OTHER TYPES OF ACTIVITIES CAN YOU TRACK. WHAT I'M THINKING OF IS HATE SPEECH, TERRORISM, MAYBE THEA SPRING UPRISINGÊ IS THIS SOMETHING THAT COULD TRACK THAT? >> >>DIPAK GUPTA: ABSOLUTELY. WE WERE TRACKING FOR INSTANCE WHEN THIS PREACHER SAID HE WAS GOING TO BURN QU'RAN, THE BOOK QU'RAN, AND IMMEDIATELY IT SPREAD LIKE WILD FIRE. SO WE WERE TRACKING WHO WERE MOST INTERESTED IN THIS. AND WE FOUND OUT THAT THERE WAS A SPOT IN TOPEKA, KANSAS WHERE THERE WAS A HOT SPOT. WE WANTED TO KNOW WHY, AND WE FOUND OUT THERE U WAS ANOTHER SMALL CHURCH THAT HAD STARTEDÊ THEY WERE SAYING THAT THEY WERE GOING TO DO THE SAME THING. SO WE CAN UNDERSTAND FOR INSTANCE, WHEN OSAMA BIN LADEN WAS KILLED, YOU COULD SEE IT'S LIGHTING UP IN SO MANY PARTS DURING THE ARAB SPRING, YOU COULD SEE THE COUNTRIES THAT ARE BEING AFFECTED WHERE PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT THESE ISSUES. >> >>PEGGY: ONE OF THE GOALS OF THIS PROJECT, I UNDERSTAND, IS TO BE ABLE TO SORT OF PREDICT HOW A CERTAIN REGION WILL ACCEPT THE INTRODUCTION OF NEW IDEAS. SO DR.ÊTSOU, LET ME START WITH YOU. ARE YOU ABLE TO DO THAT, EITHER POLITICALLY ORÊ HOW DOES THAT WORK THAT YOU CAN PREDICT A CERTAIN REGION, LET'S SAY, LIKE KANSAS MIGHT BE MORE OPENÊ >> >>MING-HSAING TSOU: THE REASON THAT IS WE CAN CORRELATE IT TO THE DATA WE COLLECT ON THE TWITTER, SOCIAL MEDIA WEB PAGE, TO THE ACTUAL CENSUS DATA. SO WE DON'T KNOW THAT THIS CITY THE POPULATION PROFILE, THE RATIO OR GENDER PROFILE, AND WE HAVE ALL FOUND A CORRELATION BETWEEN THE OPINION WITH THEIR PROFILE. THAT'S WHY WE TRY TO CREATE A MODEL. >> >>PEGGY: UP FORTUNATELY WE ARE OUT OF TIME. THERE'S A LOT MORE INFORMATION ON OUR WEBSITE, KPBS.ORG. THANKS SO MUCH FOR GIVING US A LITTLE BIT OF INSIGHT TO WHAT YOU DO. >> >>DIPAK GUPTA: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. >> >>MING-HSAING TSOU: YOU'RE WELCOME.