Nagorno Karabakh

So, where are we? In an area of the world known as the Caucasus. Specifically, Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh is a region that, according to international recognition, is a part of Azerbaijan. In reality, though, most of Nagorno-Karabakh and some nearby areas constitute a de facto independent state that hopes to join neighboring Armenia. So, what happened? Violence. A lot of it. Conflicting reports from all sides have made it difficult to piece together exactly what happened, but the end result appears to be at least several dozen deaths in total over the past few days, including civilians and children. The governments of Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic claim that Azerbaijan struck first, while the Azerbaijani government says that its military came under attack before advancing. This is the worst violence in the area since the 1994 ceasefire. Both countries were once part of the Soviet Union, and increased ethnic tensions in the late 1980s sparked a large movement among ethnic Armenians to have Nagorno-Karabakh transferred from Azerbaijan to Armenia. After the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, the newly independent Armenia and Azerbaijan quickly found themselves in a full-scale war for control of the majority-Armenian region, with claims of ethnic cleansing on both sides. The 1994 ceasefire only came after more than 100,000 casualties and perhaps more than one million displaced people. Since then, there have been border clashes from time to time, but this weekend’s fighting is a major development. So, why should we care? A lot of this has to do with the “where” question. You may have noticed earlier, but here’s the map again to really drive it home: this is a small area of the world with a few major players on all sides. Iran, Russia, and Turkey have all fought over influence and outright control of the region for centuries. If we zoom out a bit further, you might also notice some recent hotspots for violence, including Chechnya, Iraq, Syria, and Ukraine. This isn’t to say these conflicts are all directly related, but rather, a complex system of loyalties and hostilities makes this region of the world very precariously balanced between various competing powers. Nagorno-Karabakh may look like a very small, regional conflict, but it is part of a much larger fabric of tension and competition. Large oil and natural gas reserves, complete with pipelines primarily geared toward exporting energy toward Europe and the West, further complicate these conflicts. Azerbaijan has good relations with Turkey and Georgia, and major pipelines run through all three countries, deliberately avoiding Iran, Armenia, and Russia. Russia has had a special relationship with Armenia since the days of the Ottoman Empire, while Turkey and Armenia are very hostile toward one another. Iran currently has less direct influence in the region, but is a major backer of the Syrian government (along with Russia) and is also hostile toward Kurdish independence movements (along with Turkey). Meanwhile, the independent countries of the Caucasus all look to larger allies for assistance while maintaining strong independent streaks and opposition to foreign dominance. In short, while major efforts from all sides are being made to avoid outright war, this region and its complexities will continue to cause instability for the foreseeable future.