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Dmitry Abzalov, President of the Center of Strategic Communications
We are talking about a new demand for conservatism, for conservatives of a new wave.
If we look at top-10 of the most influential politicians,
for example, according to Forbes, more serious editorials, international institutes,
8 of 10 most influential politicians are conservatives.
Only 3 people from top-20 represent the left-wing policy, officially left-wing.
And their positions in the internal market are very weak.
As for Forbes, it has two classic politicians ñ Obama who takes the second place
and Hollande who takes 8-9 place, depends on parameters of counting.
Hollandeís level of support is much lower than 20%, the level of approval.
As for Obama, it varies ñ during the shutdown it was 38%; today it is 42%.
I mean the level of approval.
For example, Mrs. Merkelís level of approval
(and she is a classic representative of conservative policy in the EU) surpassed 60%.
In summer 2013 the level was 69%; it slightly decreased by autumn.
Russian President who takes the first place in Forbes has 64%.
These are two main approaches which are popular in the world,
it is also connected with an economic component.
In the context of difficult economic problems and a difficult economic situation,
people, voters became more prudent.
The main thing for them is maintenance of their life style.
Thatís what makes them go to the streets, i.e. to maintain their economic life style,
their social life style, and their political life style.
And conservative agenda meets the demand.
An alternative to it is left-wing policy.
In modern Europe is has a very radical character.
For instance, Hollande belongs not to moderate socialists, but to populists actually.
And his left-wing economic policy confirms it.
The same can be said about Italy where left-wing forces become radical.
It also concerns right-wing politicians.
A conservative leader 2.0 should present rational arguments, first of all, unlike neocons.
Secondly, he should defend traditional values.
If we look at Merkelís program, she provides them softly through her whole policy.
The same concerns the position of Russian President.
It is a demand, and Moscow manages to answer it.
If we look at sociological studies of recent years, we will see that the main part of voters
in Italy, Spain, France, Germany pay attention not only to economic processes,
but also to social, inter-religious conflicts, family issues.
Actually the agenda becomes as important at economic problems.
We see that conflict capacity is growing in regions.
A classical example is Switzerland, as well as France, and Germany.
Citizens pay attention to a political position of their leader.
Conservatism is expressed in traditional values and defense of them.
It is funny that many citizens are ready to go to the streets for the values,
but few people are ready to communicate.
Thus, Merkelís level is rather high, as she doesnít make a show of the component of her political image,
but defends it firmly.
President of Russia behave in the same manner.
The demand was formed; and it will continue developing next year
due to a difficult economic situation which will take place in Europe, China, and the U.S.,
if Q-3 program is not stimulated.
In this context the demand for a moderate conservative line will increase,
and it expands horizons for a new agenda, new instruments of Russian foreign policy in next 12 months.
There are many players who are presented in various conflicts,
but the only thing which united them is conservative agenda.
The situation in Southeast Asia confirms it.
For instance, India, Japan, and China ñ
despite differences in their economic policies and political institutes,
conservative agenda is a basis for cooperation.
The multi-vector cooperation and establishment of new platforms not in the economic sphere,
but in politics can become a trend of 2014.
