Scheduled Lives, Stressful Drives

[Music] >>What do you think about the traffic here in DC? >>Terrible, very bad. We have a really bad situation here in Washington. It's hard to drive, it's very hard to drive. >>Do you think traffic is getting worse in Washington, DC or better over time? >>I think its getting worse, I've been out here for some time. I think its getting worse. >>What's the worst you've ever been stuck in traffic here? >>Worst? 8 hours. >>8 hours? What you do for 8 hours? >>Sit around trying to get home. >>One of the best ways to get somebody started in a conversation in Washington, DC is to start talking about traffic. Now, everyone seems to have an opinion and its mostly pretty negative. Hi, I'm Karl Wunderlich and I live and work here in the Washington DC metropolitan area. I know first hand how difficult and stressful traveling in this area can be. Our lives are increasingly not just work related appointments but in our personal lives as well. Day care pickups, getting to the airport, or just being on time for soccer practice. The bottom line is that we frequently need to be on time or else the fragile chain connected work and personal commitments is unraveled. more scheduled, travel has become more congested, more unpredictable. on time in an unpredictable system, we find ourselves leaving earlier, mapping out alternative routes, and of course, complaining a lot about traffic. Someone that's heard more than his share of complaints over the years is here with us today. He's the former Maryland State Highway Administrator, Hal Kassoff. Hal in your tenure, I bet you got more than an earful of complaints about traffic in the Washington DC metropolitan area. >>There's no question about it. The worst part of the state in terms of traffic was right here in the Washington suburbs and what we found was that it just affected people's outlook on life. I mean where they live, where they work, and access to healthcare and jobs, and child care. It affected the business community in terms of where they would locate. We have folks coming in from other parts of the country really trying to figure out an optimal place to be to avoid the worst of traffic congestion. It was a major topic of conversation. >>Sure. Now I know the provision of traveler information is an important part of Maryland's approach to congestion. Now how did you get started in traveler information? >>Well, that's an interesting story. We had a newly elected governor and he had campaigned that he was going to improve the worst trip in Maryland which was the trip from the Baltimore Washington area to our Ocean resorts in Ocean City, Maryland. A trip that would normally take perhaps 2-3 hours at the most, in the summer time during the peaks would take 5, 6, even 7 hours. >>Wow! >>He said, I've got some bad news, because we are going to improve it by this summer. That was 6 months away, and we were desperate so we turned to a softer approach and the softer approach turned out be reaching out to our customers. Providing them with traveler information and boy did that make a difference. >>So what do you think are te best ways of talking about the benefits of traveler information services? >>Well, you know we have our old set of tools that we looked at the system as transportation planners and traffic engineers and said volume-to-capacity ratios, absolute travel time, and really those were not the critical issues that we found to our customers. So what we found is that we have to start measuring in ways that respond to their needs. For example, how reliable is this system? Do I have to allow a cushion of time? How predictable is the traffic jam going to be? How much time do I have to budget? Do I have to leave earlier? So we need performance measures that resonate in those ways. >>Well Hal, it sounds like the things you're talking about are very different than the ways civil engineers and traffic engineers typically talk about improvements to a roadway system. on. It's different and the challenge is going to be to define measures that our civil engineering community and our traffic engineering community can use to respond to customers in ways that relate to their issues. >>Sure. And I think that in the next 10-15 minutes, we are going to take you through some new techniques that we have using archived data to answer just those sorts of questions trying to mesure those things like on time reliability, predictability, and travel time budget in ways that we have not been able to before. So, Hal, if you will stay with us for the next 15 minutes or so >>That sounds great. Do you mind if I take some notes? >>[laughs] Sure, that would be great. Do you find that the traffic reports on th >>Do they help? Nah, I pretty much do what I'm going to do anyway. >>So when you hear about a reported congestion, you drive right at the congestion? >>Yeah, if everyone else takes their advice and goes off, I have the road to myself and its usually clear by the time I get there. >>So how is traffic here in Washington DC? >>Terrible. >>Is today particularly a bad day? >>It's about the same as usua, but it's a little heavier where I normally go. >>So you had to bail out -- this is not your normal route? >>No its not, I'm just taking another route to see how it goes. >>So how is it working out so fa? >>Pretty bad, I'm talking to you. >>Traveler Information. Traditionally, we get it by looking up at an overhead message board or by tuning into a traffic report on the radio. But today, Advanced Traveler Information Systems are really changing the way that information is getting to us as travelers. In fact, these new systems go way beyond a simple traffic report or a congestion ahead message. For travelers on our urban roadway systems, these new advanced services provide personalized traffic reports directly to the traveler. Now the traveler can access these reports from a computer at home, or at work, over the phone by dialing 5-1-1, or alternatively by having a service contact the traveler themselves when conditions are unusual. And this contact can be done in a variety of mediums like cell phone, by pager, or by fax. These services seem to offer help in the struggle to manage the unpredictable reality of urban traveling. But how effective are these services in saving time and reducing stress? Further, can these savings be accurately measured? In order to illustrate the benefits of using an advanced traveler information service, lets take a long undesirable trip from the Washington metropolitan area, well actually its my trip from work in Laurel Maryland to my home in Dale City, Virginia. By showing you this trip I hope to illustrate how not only we can talk about the benefits of using advanced traveler information services but also but how we can measure these benefits as well. It's 4:00 here in Laurel, Maryland and that means its time for me to go home from work. My destination is Dale City, Virginia that's approximately 65 miles away. Unfortunately it is across the entire Washington metropolitan area and since I leave here at about 4:00 everyday, that means that I'm pretty much going into the teeth of rush hour traffic here. This commute is fairly unpleasant, but the one good thing about it is that I have three different ways I can go. My first option is to follow r at the Woodrow Wilson Bridge, then heading south to Dale City. My second option is to head onto I-495 crossing the Potomac River at the American Legion Bridge. Then head south on I-95 at Springfield. My third, but least reliable, option is to take the BWI parkway cutting through the district and across the Potomac River at the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. Here's what I'm going to do. I am going to take I-95 today because on average it turns out to be the best for me. Traffic moves along well until I hit unexpected back up just before the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. Wow, 1-2-3-4-5 5 car collision. 5 drivers standing there talking to each other, and the rest of us are stuck. Continued heavy traffic beyond the bridge means that by 5:00, I'm only reached Springfield Virginia. good. Well that didn't work out very well at all. Because of the traffic, now I'm 25 minutes late for my daycare here in Dale City. And for me that means a pretty serious fine. In fact when I get home, if get fined for every minute and today 25 minutes late, that means the fine I pay is actually more than what I pay for daycare during the entire week. So because of the traffic this turned out to be a pretty terrible day, a very expensive day for me in terms of commuting. I don't know exactly what I would've done differently but this is not a good commute at all. Clearly my plan to chance it and leave at 4:00 did not turn out to be a good decision. What could I have done differently? In order to answer this question we employed a new technique based on historical records of travel time around the area. From these records we can recreate what would've happened to alter egos of mine who made different decisions about when to leave and which route to take. Let's take a look at an experiment which deals with today's expensive failed commute from Laurel to Dale City. First I'll dramatize what would've happened if I'd arranged my life that I might leave earlier despite the fact that my boss prefers that I stay to 4:00. ead of :00, I left work at 3:30 instead which means I have to get to work earlier, wake up earlier, but by leaving at 3:30 I should be pretty confident that I wo tly. From experience, I know that at this time of day, going along I-495 over the American Legion Bridge 95. Now we're in Virginia. This is a place where typically there could be some serious problems, but today there aren't that many problems at all. I'm driving along here... at the speed limit, ...whatever... Now by looking at the historical record of travel time, traffic would've proven out to be a lighter than normal on this particular day for this particular route. The result is very little delay and very early arrival in Dale City. Oh well, here it is 4:20. I'm in Dale City, plenty early, a little too early, I guess. I've got 40 minutes now, that I can do something. I guess. But since I had no idea I was going to be early I'm really not sure what I'm going to do with this time. In some ways I feel like I've wasted 40 minutes of time. I'm paying for childcare that I'm not really using, but given that I had no idea I was going to get it, i and go on from there. Being 40 minutes early isn't so terrific but I guess it's better than being late. Our trip statistics show that by leaving earlier, I would have been able to realize an improved but still imperfect outcome. Now let's consider a case where I rely on an advanced traveler information system to contact me about unusual conditions and advise me on when to leave and which route to take. >>So can we get the specs on Monday? >>I think that Tuesday maybe a little bit more reasonable. >>Sure. Tuesday is fine. Do you have any other questions on the material? >>No. >>Ok, Great. Well I'll see you on Tuesday. >>Thanks see you on Tuesday. [beeping] Well, there looks like there is a problem on my commute, that's my service calling in to let me know. In fact, I need to take another route and as well I need to leave. It's 3:45 now, I need to be gone by 3:50 if I expect to be in Dale City by 5:00. My service lets me know where the problems are and today suggests that I go over the American Legion Bridge instead of my normal route. There's nothing really here that I can't put off until a little bit later. Nothing is more important than getting to Dale City at 5:00, so I'm just going to clean up and head out. The service has taken me off of my normal route. And again by looking at the historical record of travel time, I would experience very little delay until I reach the Tysons Corner area. e traffic here, I'm going in between 25-30 mph. So.... I know that is a little bit slower than I like to go but it's still making progress. I feel confident the service has taken me the right way and there's no major accident just ahead here. Congestion breaks up and the rest of the ride turns out to have little delay. The result is that I arrive in Dale City at 4:50. This is great. I'm here right about 10 minutes early, I'll take that. Okay. Alright. Well, we ran into a little bit of traffic there. Nothing serious. And here it is --we got here 10 minutes earl. So that's pretty good service today. It worked out fine. It let me know when I needed to leave and I've arrived wi . That's great. Using the service turns out to be particularly useful today. Clearly my results using the service are superior to either of my alter egos that didn't use information. Although it is instructive to compare both these outcome I still might want to know what the best possible strategy was for that day -- the strategy that would get me to Dale City precisely on time. Again, by referencing the historical record of travel time we can establish what might have happened if I had a completely accurate forecast of congestion conditions. Next I'll be dramatizing a character that represents a hypothetical benchmark, rather than a strategy I can actually adopt. I'm Mr. On-Time. I'll be there on 5:00. Don't worry. All right, I'll see you then. Ok. Bye-Bye. How can I be so sure I'm going to be in Dale City at 5:00? wh . In fact everyday. So I can decide to leave at exactly the right time that's going to get to Dale City at exactly 5:00. I know which route to take and which time to leave and in fact, It's time to leave. Let's go. Keep in mind that by calculating this optimal behavior we create a benchmark for comparison with our other commuting strategies and their associated alter egos. Clearly it does not represent a behavior that I or anyone else can adopt whether we use advanced traveler information systems or not. I am right on time. Well guess what time it is? 5:00. Exactly 5:00. Why? Because I knew exactly where the traffic was going to be, exactly where the congestion was going to be and exactly what route to take. So here it is 5:00, Dale City. Can't do any better than that. We've seen how the use of information can be useful on a particular day on my trip from Laurel to Dale City. But what about over an entire year of commuting? Well, since we can go back to the records and construct any day of that period, we can take a look at on time reliability on over an entire period. The result is if I choose to chance it 4:00, I am going to be late 50 percent of the time. But by leaving early I can make that much better at 97 percent of the time. If I use a service I can get fairly close to that 92 percent on time reliability. We can compare these results against the benchmark, the optimal character who has essentially a view of everything that's going to happen on his trip before he starts. The penalty for leaving early everyday at 3:30 is shown in a metric by travel budget. Here we see that by leaving at 3:30, my leave early alter ego has to allocate 90 minutes to his travel everyday. And it can be reduced by either chancing it or by using the service. We can see those numbers are in the low 70s. And compare that against our optimal benchmark which has 66 minutes travel budget. Summarizing the impact of traveler information on my trip from Laurel to Dale City, the first thing we can say is that by using information I'm on time quite reliably. Further, compared to the leave early alter ego who time in there's a 13 percent reduction in travel budget which turns out to be more than 80 hours in an entire year. Overall, I can characterize the trip as being more predictable which means lower stress than if I try to chance it. All less wasted time than if I leave early. ight ask, is Laurel to Dale City the only trip in the DC area that traveler information can be effective? The answer is no. We took a look at a very representative sample of many different trips, long and short, across the DC metropolitan area. And the result in terms of on time reliability and other metrics are actually quite similar. All together the key impact of traveler information was more predictable travel. More predictable travel means a system because we know when things are bad and when they are good. As well a reduced travel budget compared to behavior that time into an already scheduled life. Well Hal, now that you've seen the video, what do you think are the key points? >>Well I think the first key point is that from our customers perspective traffic congestion causes real stress in their lives. he part of transportation people to do two things that I can think of. One is how can we provide them with the kind of information in control of the situation. That enables them to select from options and make choices. That's number one. And number two is how can we measure the effectiveness of doing that. What are the benefits? We're talking about making an investment in advanced technology in Intelligent Transportation Systems, Advanced Traveler Information systems. How do we justify that in terms of benefits? sures that ers and we liked to use in the old days. >>Right, Hal. I think you hit the nail right on the head. I think that the critical point is that if we just provie information to the traveler, they're best suited to figue out what to do with that for their own benefit. They can make powerful decisions. They can decide not to take a trip, to take another route, or leave a little bit earlier. It empowers them. I think that really is the benefit of advanced travelr information systems. >>Absolutely.