Drought Update across Northeastern And Central Nevada - March 7, 2014

This is a web brief on the current drought status in northern and central Nevada from the National Weather Service in Elko. In this brief we will provide an overview on the current snowpack across the region, the water year precipitation to date, the current drought status across Nevada, and the long range outlook for precipitation. For the third straight year in a row mountain snowpack across Northern and Central Nevada is running generally below average, though there has been a notable improvement from just two months ago. The bar graph on the lower right shows that all water shed basins are running below average, with the Northern Great Basin watershed being in the worst shape at 49% of normal. The best watershed basin is the small Clover Valley Watershed at 97% of normal. For more detailed information, the individual NRCS SNOTEL sites and their current snow water equivalent are listed in the table. You can see there are only three reporting stations that above normal for this year: Corral Canyon, Green Mountain and Diamond Peak. Since the beginning of the 2013-14 water year that started on Oct 1st, there have been mixed readings on how well we are doing at our valley climate recording sites located at local airports. The red lines in the above graphs are the normal precipitation totals to date, with the green lines showing how much has fallen this year. You can see that Elko and Tonopah are running below average for the water year, while Winnemucca and Ely have received significantly more and are running a bit above average for the water year to date. This map is an areal representation of how much precipitation has fallen for the water year compared to normal. You can see there are some localized areas across the region with near or even a bit above average precipitation. However, besides these local areas, the majority of the region is running 50-90% of normal. The driest region has been across extreme Northwestern Nevada with most areas below 50% and some areas below 25%. Despite the recent significant rain and snow, there have been no significant changes in the drought monitor across Nevada over the last 3 months with moderate to severe drought over Eastern Nevada and extreme to exceptional drought over Western Nevada. With mountain snowpack near to below average and precipitation running near to below average across the region, the drought will continue to persist over the next few months. Due to the longevity of this drought, the region will need to have a prolonged period of above average precipitation to decrease the drought status. The current outlook is looking more grim toward the end of March. The west coast ridge that has been responsible for keeping Nevada drier than average overall this winter is forecast to return over the next week. The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook is showing a high probability of below average precipitation across the west. Thus, it is looking like it will become drier into the second half of March. The Climate Prediction Center March/April/May seasonal outlook is showing a higher probability of below average precipitation across southwestern Nevada with equal chances across the rest of the state. The California-Nevada River Forecast Center outlook for the Humboldt River and its tributaries is still not good for this water year. The above graphic dictates the forecasted volume of flow on area rivers compared to an average year. You can see that most rivers are forecast to have less than 50% of their annual flow this year. Unless the spring brings significant additional precipitation, dry and low reservoirs will remain dry and low due to the lack of melt-off. In summary: Mountain Snowpack is running near to below average, the drought is forecast to continue, water flow forecasts on area rivers are not encouraging, and a prolonged period of significant precipitation is still needed to improve the drought This has been a web brief on the drought impacting Northern and Central Nevada from the National Weather Service in Elko. For your latest weather information including watches, warnings and advisories, direct your browser to weather.gov/elko. Thank you for watching.