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By the way, can I just give a reflection on the
economic outlook, a weekend debate
about the future of Greece, but I want to ask you a question:
as experts in the Estonian economy. I've been looking back
since my last visit here. I've seen house prices growing
at one point over four years at 35 percent per year, between 2000, 2004 and
2008. Correct? I think in 2007-2008 they
increased by fifty percent almost in a single year. 47-50 percent, yes?
It was high, maybe give or take five percent, depending on which street
you are in. But it was high correct?
We also saw the central bank rate go up as high as
8, 8.3, 8.6, 8.7, 8.9
percent. Inflation rate generally in 2007-2008 was peaked at
what 11.2 to 11.12 percent.
Interesting. Now I have a question to ask you today.
Imagine that you had come inside
the Eurozone in 2005 and
because the rest of the Eurozone was in a terrible
economic mess, that they needed an interest rate of around 1 percent,
just to survive. And meanwhile, you are driving your economy at incredible speed
and you're seeing
35 percent house price inflation and
8 percent general inflation, tell me this:
What do you think would have happened in 2008
if your interest rate had not been
9 percent or nearly, but 1 percent?
And what would it be today if the interest rate was,
had been through 1 percent throughout the last 5-6 years?
Put your hands up if you think the current economic situation in Estonia
would be different
than it is now? Put your hands up if you think it will be different? Of course,
hugely different, of course. So now please tell me the future.
Because 1 percent interest rate seems quite low,
to me,
looking at the recent history, and yet
of course we have to live with it. Because, the rest of the European Union is is such a
mess they need an interest rate of around, zero nearly,
to have a chance of recovery. But meanwhile Estonia
you are powering in growth, successful economic recovery, doing well.
So, we're in for interesting times. What does this mean?
It means, I'm not saying what the future is going to be,
I'm saying this: If we are going to plan we need more than one strategy.