If Romney is Leading in 2 Weeks He'll Probably Win Election

when i look at republican and democratic conventions i think like what would go through all this nonsense for right because it's all highly scripted out in the old days as a reason for the compassionate convention was we all get together and try to figure out who the hell a president should great and then there would be delegates but it would be a mass and there was some rules that it was interesting and sometimes the good kennedy who came in leading wouldn't necessarily come out with the nomination in a word that they would have to he never boats as goes way back in history but you know even through the nineteen sixties we had real conventions where we had real drama now there's a drama no limited knows right i love the moment we're all the jersey just but mit romney over tomay wall bed all day all really you don't say and willing to that now how many months ago got and so as i look at this i have a tendency to want to say but we don't kidding around about the subject marketing him it turns out that there's some real numbers as to why these conventions matter a lot and the main reason behind it is because this is when most americans start paying attention is about the marketing campaign in fact let me give you numbers um... pew research center noticed that four years ago for example twenty percent of americans before the commission say they were paying attention to the race right after the connections that number jumped to forty seven percent and that is true of many of the convention of the recent connections there's this huge bomb pop where they go up there are going to add a couple speeches i miss you you know the two candidates say annex are paying attention so that makes sense now my new those bombs that you're gonna see in the polling and that annotation they're paying it's less less every year one because it's less relevant but to it's because the television audience is being divided you know all days all the networks would cover it he didn't have any other choices so your four so watch all these political speeches now you don't have to watch it and a lot of people have already gotten a memo to pay the money besides elections not our votes they might not no it specifically when it comes to the polling et cetera but they have that gut sense so it makes it also easier to turn off the stuff but nonetheless listen though this it turns out that four times since nineteen eighty eight according to upload the site is robert erickson ng chris burke believes in uh... the leader of the polls immediately before the conventions emerge trailing after the convention and went on to lose the popular vote so four-time society you know that's a lot and happen with george w_ bush in two thousand four george h w bush in eighty eight clinton ninety two and al gore was also on the popular vote in two thousand right and what happens is come in and the other guys leaving they watch the conventions they watch their arguments and they don't know i'd like the other guy better and then two weeks after the bay never lose the lead now after the debates on after all the news that after the heavy campaigning in that they don't lose the weight so it that makes you realize look at least in the past and in the recent past it has mattered allot one more amazing fact about that they pulled pools upholds over the last fifteen elections and found that no candidate was behind two weeks after the conventions has come back to win the popular vote now that's a makes last fifteen elections two weeks after the convention if you're behind you're done son stick a fork in now i doesn't mean that it's going to happen in this election and of course see historical patterns are important irrelevant all-important but it is obviously eugenic here the american people will pay a lot more tension these commissions than they do other things you'll listen to some of its beaches obviously to make candid speeches or the most important at the end they'll probably make their decision and apparently two weeks after the conventions they usually won't change their mind that's why these commissions are actually a lot more important than we realize given their highly scripted and otherwise generally useless