Four Rivers Ag Report for December 13th, 2013

This week in the Four Rivers Ag Report, Was the Farm Bill destined to be this hard to pass? Also with corn so cheap, what does that mean for cash rents? And if you could burn wood, what wood would you burn? That and more on the Four Rivers Ag Report. (Music) The Four Rivers Ag Report is underwritten in part by: Announcer: The Department of Geology/Geography is a proud sponsor of the Four Rivers Ag Report and provides integrative learning opportunities for students and the community to explore the physical and cultural world, near and far. Welcome to the Four Rivers Ag Report. I'm Fred Peralta It truly may be the Christmas Miracle, but the House and the Senate have agreed on a potential budget deal... and this means ... we probably won't have a Farm Bill until January. On Tuesday night, the Budget Conference committee announced that they agreed on a two year budget deal and that was the major hold up of the Farm Bill Conference committee. So plenty of time to dot the "I" and cross the "t". No, the snow storm that made NFL football so fun to watch on Sunday pretty much shut down Washington DC and the employees of the Congressional Budget Office couldn't get to work to make key cost estimates. Without these estimates, according the the Wall Street Journal "negotiators said they wouldn't be able to reach a deal with enough time to vote on legislation before the House adjourns." Which was today. So we waited three years so far, what's another couple of weeks... right? Passing the Farm bill didn't used to be all that dramatic. It happened regularly, coming out fully formed out of some smoke filled room. But we've been waiting for a bill ever since this program started on the air. Why has it been so difficult to bridge the gap in a bill designed to give everyone a bit of something to take home to their districts? To shed some light on all this, I talked to Jonathan Coppess from the Department of Agriculture and Comsumer Economics of the U of I about his study "Mapping the Fate of the Farm Bill". >>Fred Peralta: And introducing to the program is a young man I think we'll be talking to in the future. It's Jonathan Coppess. He's an assistant professor of law and policy at the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois. And Jonathan, you wrote an interesting, or co-authored an interesting article called "The Mapping of the Fate of the Farm Bill," where you talk about how we got to this nowhere that we're at now. How did we get here? >>Jonathan Coppess: Well, that's a great question, and that's what really led Todd Kuethe and I, who's the co-author on it. Both of us are new to the University of Illinois, and we, you know, everybody's been talking about why this has been so difficult for the farm bill to get done, and wherever you go, whoever you talk to, you know, it's been one of those topics in conversations. And so, Todd and I kind of had been sort of kicking around this idea. Well, what is it that's changed [unclear dialogue] ...Started is, this was the [unclear dialogue] our anticipating being a series of these that kind of steps back and tries to frame up some of the dynamics around this farm bill. And obviously, you know, the big issues that we have for this farm bill: the Supplemental Nutritional Systems Program, SNAP, or what used to be called food stamps, and the big fight that happened particularly in the House of Representatives, which is, you know, carried over into how these negotiations happen with the Senate, and also the big commodity subsidy title programs and how that works out on a regional basis. So, as we got to talking about this, Todd was showing me this capability of mapping, and we were looking at different regions. And so, we kind of started to look at the partisan alignment across regions. And to make sense of it, we went back to some other farm bills in history to try to see if we could find some good benchmarks, if you will, some other time. Of course, 1996 historically was a very difficult farm bill. A lot of similar situations politically. And so, we started with this by saying, well, let's just look at two different years, look at the House of Representatives, how the districts kind of played out on a partisan, a party affiliation, and then their regional issues. Because, particularly from a commodity title discussion, regional issues really matter. The southern interests, the crops that are in the southern states vs. the corn belt. So, we were trying to figure out if there was a way to show some of this struggle that kind of makes sense across the map. And that's what we started with. And now, we've got a host of different things we're still, we're looking at and trying to put together, and we hope to have a series that kind of helps people understand. >>Fred Peralta: You know, the farm bill's always been this one where there's been pat on a back and some arm twist thing, and I'll give you this if you give me that. And you're right about the, even between farm groups, you know. You know, make sure that we have crop insurance for the corn growers, but we'd have to have sugar support for the sugar producers. And of course, everyone else's giveaway is a bad giveaway, but you got done. What's the difference between, you know, '96 was a difficult year, split House, but we have that now; how could we get that done in '96, but we can't get that done now? >>Jonathan Coppess: Again, I wish we'd been able to kick over the right answer and have it come running out, you know, for us. But, I mean, you're absolutely right. A farm bill, and it's one of the things we say in the document, it's what we call an omnibus piece of legislation, which means it isn't just one thing. It is 12, 13 titles, it's almost a thousand pages or more, the Senate version is more than a thousand pages. So, there are a lot of things in there, which means there's a lot of things for different people to dislike, and there's a lot of things for different people to like. And the way it gets done traditionally is that coalition comes together around all the things they like, and there's the tradeoffs and the compromises for everybody to get, you know, what they need, whether it's everything from rural development or research programs to the big money programs like SNAP, like conservation, like Title I. And that sort of pulls everybody together. But what we saw this year in the House was the exact opposite. Historically, 1973, the farm bill that came through in 1973 was the one that combined reauthorizing the food stamp program with reauthorizing the farm program. What you said. As we mentioned, it helped pull the larger growing urban vote into alignment with the smaller, the rural vote. And so, the quintessential congressional coalition building, farm state members and suburban urban members coming together and finding a way to make the programs dance together. And they did, for 40 years. That unwound this year in the House of Representatives. Now, the Senate passed a bill last year, and they passed the bill again this year, and both times bipartisan. A little slightly different makeup, due to the ranking member change and the southern, some of the issues with members from the south. But the House went the opposite way, and instead of building the coalition, it unraveled on the House floor in June. And then, they split up the nutrition program and made it very partisan and very political. And it's sort of complicated this process of getting it done more. And so, part of this idea was to look at these regions and look at how this plays out. As you can see on the map, and I'm sorry, I don't have a map with me to show... >>Fred Peralta: We'll be putting that in. >>Jonathan Coppess: Good. You can see really how red, we used red for Republican, blue for Democrat, like you see on the news. And you can just see the vast rural areas are very red, and the coasts and the highly populated parts of the country are blue. And you know, it begs the question: is that part of the problem? Have we lost the ability to compromise because we've sort of, we've polarized, even in where are members are from? And you hear the issues about gerrymandering and everything, so it all kind of comes to that. And that's one reason we went back to '96, because actually, '96 you had President Clinton, you had the House turnover, and the House became a Republican majority for the first time in I think... >>Fred Peralta: Newt Gingrich, yes. >>Jonathan Coppess: Yeah. And see, there's a lot of the same kind of similar partisan difficult politics. But you had a bipartisan farm bill in the House. And it was a lot of change. Then, Chairman Pat Roberts from Kansas, who was the ranking member in the Senate last year, was the House chairman, and he got a bill through Congress, with a lot of difficulty, but it came out with a bipartisan. So, we're trying to line up to see, okay, let's look at the districts across the country, and [unclear dialogue] has this really good regional breakdown; they break down the country by what they call production regions, which kind of, it's a rough estimation. But it's, you know, >>Fred Peralta: We've got that map up right now, too. >>Jonathan Coppess: Yeah. And so, we were trying to look across that. And one of the things that jumped out right away is there were more blue districts throughout the south and in some of the rural areas in '96 than there were this past go-around. And you know, that leads to the question of: is that where some of our, our ability to compromise and build a coalition, because we don't have... within the same situations. You know, we don't have many rural Democrats that can cut deals with rural Republicans because they have similar interests. And now, the interests in the partisan affiliation have split and kind of gone in that alignment. Does that make it much more difficult to then come together. Again, we don't have a lot of answers at this point, but it certainly is, we felt like it was a really interesting way. And I give a lot of credit to Todd Kuethe. I mean, he mapped this out and was able to sort of, you know, we joked when we were doing it, and we kind of said in our discussion that the old adage that a picture is worth a thousand words. You know, he put it up on the screen, you look at '96 and 2013, and you see some differences. And so, we have kind of, we have what we hope is an interesting way to look at this discussion. >>Fred Peralta: Well, I'm really looking forward to the rest of your articles on this. And hopefully, we'll be talking about it as history, as the new farm bill passes maybe in January? >>Jonathan Coppess: Absolutely. We're knocking on wood and crossing fingers, right, because after all this time, it finally gets done. >>Fred Peralta: Well, Jonathan Coppess, assistant professor of law and policy at the University of Illinois, thank you so much, and we'll be talking to you soon. >>Jonathan Coppess: Great, Fred. I really appreciated talking with you, and I look forward to doing it again soon. And hopefully, again, we'll catch up when this thing's passed, and we can all celebrate a little bit. >>Fred Peralta: Excellent. Thank you. >>Jonathan Coppess: Thank you. Kacie: The last USDA supply/demand report came out this week and just like the roller coaster ride that this growing season has been, there appears to be another dip in the amount of corn and soybeans people say that was produced this year. The USDA numbers show that 2013/14 ending stocks were almost 100 million bushels less for corn and 20 million bushels less for soybeans than were reported a month ago. Corn comes in at 1.8 billion bushels and 150 million bushels for soybeans, way up from last year's 825 million bushels of corn and 140 million bushels of beans. And since we had less corn and beans than we thought, prices should go up... right? A reported huge increase in corn and bean production around the world is expected to keep commodity prices low for now. The USDA says the average farm price for corn is expected to range from $4.05 to $475 per bushel. Bean prices though have been raised, expected to range from $11.50 to $13.50. Kacie: So Commodity prices have dropped dramatically as supply and demand have leveled out. However, cash rents paid to produce crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat are still high. Todd Gleason has more on the potential income prospects for those acres rented at the highest levels. Todd: The highest cash rents in the state of Illinois are considered to be, on average, about $75 more than the countywide average as reported by USDA. University of Illinois Extension Farm Management Specialist Gary Schnitkey has done the numbers from one end of the state to the other to see what that extra $75 in land rent may mean to farmer profits in 2014. Schnitkey :36 We did it for four reasons of Illinois... ...hundred dollar an acre range. Todd: The work varied the crop rotation by region of the state to come up with the numbers. The northern Illinois rotation is 2/3rd corn and 1/3rd soybean. That remains the same for highly productive soils in central Illinois, but is 50/50 for the lower productivity acreage. The southern Illinois rotation is 1/3rd corn, 1/3rd soybean, 1/3rd wheat double crop soybeans. The rotation didn't make a difference. Schnitkey :18 Over all returns are lower for southern... ...farmer return at an average cash rent. Todd: Schnitkey's work on the impact of high cash rents on 2014 per acre net income is based on $4.60 cash corn and $11.00 soybeans. You can find the details on ILLINOIS' Farm Doc Daily Website. Kacie: The USDA announced a couple of programs that are designed to help Rural areas out. On Tuesday, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced that the USDA has set a goal of investing up to $50 million to increase access to mental health care in rural areas over the next three years.  The funding will be used for the construction, expansion, or equipping of rural mental health facilities and will be provided through the Community Facilities direct loan program. The USDA also announced an overhaul of the Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program. This program help make housing loans more available to residents in underserved communities. Among the changes are expanding the types of lenders who can participate in the program, including small community banks and credit unions and would allow borrowers for the first time to choose home loan terms shorter than 30 years, leading to a significant cost savings for the borrowers who qualify. Kacie: This last story may be enough to ruffle your feathers! Check out this curly feathered rooster in China! It's owner has been raising chickens for years but has never seen anything like this. Local animal officials say environmental factors may have played a role in giving his feathers the distinctive curl. If I ever take a trip to China, I know to pack my flat iron ... I have a hard enough time keeping my hair straight with the humidity in the Midwest! How about you, Fred? Do you have problems keeping your hair from curling? Fred: Fred: So last Sunday and Monday were interesting to drive in and the forecasters tell us to expect more fun Friday and Saturday. And while precipitation is welcome, it seems that we are in a very different weather pattern than we were this summer. Cameron Craig is all over this change in this week's Under the Four Rivers Skies. >>Cameron Craig: Winter storms can be the most dangerous weather phenomenon for the simple fact that multiple variables pose a threat to many human activities. Frigid cold winds, blinding blue blizzards, slippery ice, and heavy snow altogether can make life difficult and cause unnecessary loss of life if we fail to prepare for winter's wrath. Our region is unique in that it is geographically positioned in the battle zone of all sorts of weather hazards. Within a short period, we can experience rain changing over to ice, then snow and gusty polar air, all within a single winter storm system. There are three different storm systems that can influence our winter weather, and each has their own hazardous conditions, based on the moisture available and the speed of development. The Alberta Clipper is a fast developing storm system that develops in Alberta, Canada. It takes a path through the Great Lakes region, and then out to the Atlantic Ocean through the New England states. Because its track is positioned so far from the Gulf of Mexico, it does not have ample moisture to cause major snow storms. However, what is a major factor of this system are the extremely gusty winds that they can provide as the storm deepens. Cold Canadian air masses are common with Alberta Clippers, and can create harsh conditions for both humans and animals. The Colorado Low is a storm system that influences our region most often. It begins in Colorado, and makes its way through the southern Great Lakes region, and out through the New England states. Its speed of development is a little bit slower than the Alberta Clipper because of the increase in available moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on the position of the track, this storm system can bring us either heavy snow if the track is further to the south of us, or rain and ice if the track is further to the north. The last storm system is the Inside Leader, which develops in the Four Corners region of the Southwest. The track of this storm heads across Texas toward the Gulf of Mexico, picking up ample moisture, and then cuts to the north along the Eastern United States. Because the storm system has significant moisture associated with it, the speed of development is very slow and can dump several inches of snow. As these storm systems pass through our region, we must be prepared for what they provide. The most dangerous aspect of these storms is the possibility of ice or freezing rain. Freezing rain can coat every exposed object, adding weight to its structure. Trees and power lines are often under great strain when ice accumulates, causing power outages and damage to homes and automobiles. Roads can quickly become ice covered and cause significant pileups. When freezing rain is in the forecast, keep it slow on the roadways, and always keep an eye on the road conditions. Long exposure to the harsh Northerly winds can increase the possibility of frostbite that could result in the loss of fingers and toes. The best protection is to use common sense when the temperature drops, and bundle up when venturing outdoors. Not only must we protect ourselves, but remember those that live outdoors. Domestic animals and livestock are susceptible to the winter elements when their primary food source is covered up by snow or ice and the water supply frozen from cold temperatures. When the winter season winds down, and spring peeks around the corner with a significant warming, snow melt can lead to major flooding along waterways and low-lying areas. Be aware of rising water, and never try to cross fast flowing water of any depth in your vehicle. When it comes to winter, the landscape may be beautiful and peaceful looking, but winter weather can be a deceptive killer. Be well prepared this winter before the ice, snow, and harsh cold air show their indiscriminate behavior. (Music) Fred: It's that time of year makes you want to curl up with a good book and fire in the fireplace, but before you strike that match, Dave Shiley is here to tell us what to think about before we throw another log on the fire. Dave, what sort of things should we be thinking about this time of year? Dave Shiley: Well, there is a couple of things. One is fire safety. Before you get into the season, or you haven't already, you have to have someone come and inspect the chimney, the flue to see if there isn't a creosote buildup. Fred: Now, those creosote logs that supposedly takes care of the creosote buildup, now do they work. Are they going to be enough? Dave: Well it's a good idea, but it is really not a substitute for having a professional come in. That person is not only going to come in and remove the creosote buildup if you have any, but also going to inspect your flue, if you have a mason flue, for cracks that might have potential for house fires and we don't want that to happen. Fred: Yeah, house fires and gas leaks. Those are deadly this time of year. So ok, flue is ready and I'm ready to go. Where should I get the wood? What type of wood should I be looking for? Dave: Yeah. So when you're shopping for fire wood, there are lots of vendors and local producers. Fred: Yeah, the guys with the truck. Dave: Yeah, exactly. So a couple of questions that you want to ask that person. "How long has it been seasoned?" That means has it been sitting around, drying out. And we recommend that that process be at least six to nine months. So that wood needs to be cut last year and the more moisture is in the wood, the more smoke that is going to be produced and the more potential creosote buildup in your flue. Also the moisture is going to steal some of the energy that is being produced. So it is going to produce less energy. Fred: So a lot of neat popping and cracking, but not as much heat and more smoke. Dave; Right, right. So that's the first thing. "Is it seasoned?". Secondly, the volume you are buying. You want to be a wise consumer. A standard cord of wood is a stack of wood that is four feet by four feet by eight feet. Are you buying a "cord" or are you buying a "face cord" ? A face cord is just four by eight and then the length of whatever that log is cut in. Which also reminds me that you want to ask that vendor "how long are those logs that the firewood is cut into" so that it fits into your fireplace. Fred: Yeah, because it wouldn't do any good if have to fuss it in there. Are some woods better than other for fires? Dave: Well, any kind of hardwood. There are some species that produce a higher BTU value, such as the Black Locus, but the oak and maple and ash are all going to produce similar BTU values. There is not a lot of difference. The main thing is to make sure it's a dry lumber. You can inspect the logs when they are delivered and look at the ends of the logs and look for cracks or checking. If you see those, the wood has been seasoned. Fred: It's been sitting there, waiting for you. Dave: Exactly. Fred: Now I've seen those fancy logs at gas stations, the type that are wrapped, I won't mention the brand name, but the type that you pretty much just set a match to it and phooof. Are those OK to use? Dave: There are two different types of things you might see in a place like that. One is a log that is wrapped up in paper, an individual log and usually you use those as a fire starter and those are fine. And then the fire wood that are available at vendors like that, that is already packaged. That has been heat treated or fumigated or kilned dried to meet the requirement to prevent the emerald ash boer movement. The larvae and the pupae are going to be underneath the bark and the floeum, the inner bark of the tree. And so in the winter time we move from one place to another, even in the summer, spring, we're transporting that insect further. In fact, it's not harmful to burn. And a lot of communities are looking at ways to utilize these ash trees that are being killed by emerald ash boers. One is by spiral production, but another is taking that log and removing the outside bark and one inch of sap wood and the log is safe to transport in terms of not moving emerald ash boer. And utilizing that lumber rather than just throwing it into the land fill. Fred: The wood is good, but don't transport it from county to county. Dave: Yeah, and if people want to learn more about that the US Department of Agriculture has indicated that Illinois has a separate quarantine, a federal quarantine, and you can check the Illinois Department of Agriculture's website and it will describe the federal quarantine. For example it is illegal to move any kind of ash tree, living or dead or any part of hard wood lumber or firewood out of Illinois. And we have an internal quarantine with additional restrictions. Fred: Well Dave, thanks so much and hopefully we'll stay warm and toasty. Dave: Thanks. (Music) Jessica: Hi I'm Jessica Killough with your Inside Extension Do you have an interest in gardening? Want to learn more about gardening, fruit trees, and how to manage insect pests? If you answered yes to these questions and want to share your knowledge with others, then you may be interested in becoming a Master Gardener. The deadline to sign-up for Master Gardener training is December 20th. For more information, visit our website or call the Coles County Extension office at (217) 345-7034. Cold, dreary days can lead to the winter blahs. But this dreaded condition can be minimized or even avoided all together. Don't get stuck in a gloomy mood waiting for spring to come. Visit our website for tips on avoiding the winter blues. This years' University of Illinois Herb Day will be on Saturday, Jan. 18 from 8 a.m.-4:30 p.m. at the Holiday Inn Hotel and Conference Center in Urbana. Three guest speakers will be there, as well as a retail area selling a wide variety of herb, spice, and gardening product. Registration is required. Visit our website to learn more about the guest speakers and the herb fest. From U of I Extension serving Coles, Cumberland, Douglas, Moultrie, and Shelby counties this has been your Inside Extension. (Music) Fred: That's it for this week. But before we go, I'd like to take a minute to mention that WEIU is wrapping up our December Pledge period. We're doing it, because we have to. WEIU is a community based, non-commercial station. We air, and create, programs that are important to the people who live in the areas our signal covers. And we're prohibited by law to run commercials, if not this program would either be filled with seed, tractor or herbicide commercials... or wouldn't be on at all. Farmers, while economically critical to this area are few and far between and it's easier and more profitable for a station to run infomercials or shows aimed at a larger, less demanding audience. The take away from all this: Please contribute to the station, whatever you feel comfortable with. It's easy to donate on line or call the station during business hours at 847-727-9348 (toll free) and ask for Jana. She's a sweetheart and she'll help you out. WEIU really needs your help and support. And for that we thank you. So after all that... Work Hard, Be Safe and Enjoy the Beautiful sunsets. I'm Fred Peralta and thanks for Watching the Four Rivers Ag Report.The Four Rivers Ag Report is underwritten in part by: Announcer: The Department of Geology/Geography is a proud sponsor of the Four Rivers Ag Report and provides integrative learning opportunities for students and the community to explore the physical and cultural world, near and far. (Music)