How Iran's Nuclear Program Drove Relations with The West to The Brink

Tension is mounting around Iran. An Iranian nuclear scientist was recently blown up in his car. Iran is threatening to block the oil supply to the West.But what proof is there that Iran can produce nuclear arms? Is the country building a nuclear bomb? One thing is certain: if a war breaks out, Iran is ready. "We will teach them a lesson they will never forget in history." "This is the library. I want to show you a real centrifuge, this is one of the centrifuges from Natanz. A brand new one. I brought it to here. To the general conference of international atomic energy agency. You will never be able to see and touch the centrifuge like this. In any country." This is Dr. Ali Asghar Soltanieh.He's the Iranian ambassador for the International Atomic Energy Agency.It's a UN agency supervising countries that work with nuclear energy. "This is by the way the heavy water, the first heavy water made in Iran, 99.8 % pure heavy water. Now of course we are producing tons. " The UN is putting pressure on Iran to stop its centrifuges and to stop making heavy water.They are concerned that Iran might be working on a nuclear bomb. "I brought it to show the whole world that this is the centrifuge of Iran and they have to cope themselves with the reality." Iran denies working on a bomb and has resolutely continued its nuclear programme.It's quite an achievement. The programme has had many setbacks.Five Iranian nuclear experts have been blown up in their cars in broad daylight in the last 2 years. It was 7.30 in the morning. I was still asleep.The explosion was so big it rattled all the windows. So far, no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks.But the Iranian ambassador says he knows who's been killing his scientists. He has to make an important call before sitting down to be interviewed.Meanwhile we read the Christmas cards he sent this year......with a special message from the Supreme Leader himself:'We wish you a world free of nuclear weapons. Pleasantries over, it's time to ask who's killing the Iranian scientists. "Israel and Americans." "How do you know?" "Because the people who have been captured have made a confession in Iranian media and television. And the people know, there for Iranian intelligence, in fact organizations, have already captured them and they have made confession they were having training in the United States and of course Israel particularly and they have been involved directly in the assassination of our nuclear scientists." This is Ronen Bergman, an expert on the Israeli secret service.He's an Israeli investigative reporter and wrote "The Secret War with Iran."Bergman claims not to know if Israel was behind the attacks.But he does think the war with Iran has already started. "all units, military intelligence, Shin Bet, but mostly the Mossad are putting enormous efforts, we are talking about thousands actually thousands people working daily on how to understand and maybe sabotage what is happening in the Iranian nuclear project." Iran's brazen bid to develop nuclear weapons, is certainly first and foremost a threat to my country, to Israel but it's a threat to the entire region, it's a threat to the entire world. Israel thus expects the international community to act swiftly and to act decisively to thwart this danger. But we always reserve the right of self defence. Whether that includes killing Iranian scientists is not clear.But the message is. "Israel must always reserve the right to defend itself." Does that mean Israel would actually attack Iran?Avner Cohen is a professor and an expert on Israel's military strategy. He says Netanyahu's rhetoric may result in a military confrontation. "Because once you create that kind of image, once you create that kind of perception, image and self image, you cannot let that image destroy by showing yourself as a paper tiger. And once you make those kind of threats and those kind of clarification in a very bold language 'Iran will not be allowed to be a nuclear weapons state' you come to the point that either you're been shown to be serious about what you have said, or you're being viewed as just empty words. And I believe that the current Israeli leaders Netayanhu and minister of Defense Barak, they will take action." "How would Iran respond when it came to a military attack by Israel?" "My officials said with a slap in the face and of course a strong iron fist. We will teach them a lesson they will never forget in the history" "How?" "Well of course we are not going to explain how. But I'm sure that whoever has done will regret it and the others will never forget in the history." "Now the moment of greatest anxiety. Waiting those last few seconds." Israel is convinced that Iran is building a nuclear bomb and finds it unacceptable.It's a perverse twist of fate, because had it been up to Israel, Iran would have had an atom bomb long ago. In the late 1970s, Iran was ruled by Mohammad Reza Pahlavi......a dictator with Western support who celebrated his birthdays Korean-style.Pahlavi crowned himself King of Kings, or "Sjahanshah". The pro-Western Shah invested heavily in Israel. "Publicly Iran was hesitant to declare official relations with Israel. But under the public radar Iranian money was feeding tens of thousands of people in Israel. People whose relatives that worked in the military industry. And Iran was buying billions and billions of dollars from the Israeli military arsenal and other industries for their army." The Shah had nuclear ambitions too. And Israel made him an offer. 'Reading the secret transcript in one of the meetings between then the Minister of Defense Ezer Weizman, later to be the president of Israel, and the Deputy Minister of Defense in Iran, general Toufanian, you read that Ezer Weizman is telling Toufanian "you have great army, you have fabulous king, you have wonderful secret service but you lack one thing". Toufanian puzzled says: "What Mr Minister, what do we lack?". Weizman said: "You lack long range ballistic missiles that can carry a nuclear warhead. And we Israel are going to help you on this. And we arrange for you Mr Deputy Minister a special demonstration, please go with my people and we are going to fire one of these rockets, of course not armed with a nuclear warhead, into the sea, blow up a ship and you will see how efficient it is." So Israel was helping Iran to go nuclear?Israel was helping Iran to build the vehicle for a nuclear bomb.Knowingly?Knowingly." But after 40 years of dictatorship, the Iranian people began to stir.Failed land reforms caused widespread poverty.Spiritual leaders opposed the Shah's pro-Western policies.An uprising was led by an exile living in Paris: Ruhollah Khomeini, a ***'ite mullah.Israel began to fear that its rocket technology might fall into the wrong hands. "In the last minute, like March 1978, a few months before the regime collapsed, Israel realized that something is wrong, and the regime might be taken down, the whole equipment, the blue prints were packed and sent back to Israel." On February 1, 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini returned to his native land and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.The new, ***'ite leader turned out to have a strong and explicit opinion on nuclear weapons. In fact about 27 years ago, when I was in Vienna even at that time as an ambassador to the IAEA, he was talking to the people and I was listening to the short wave radio, listening to him directly, he said, and he warned the people of the world from, of the dangers of the nuclear weapons of two super powers, and it is interesting, and he called on intellectuals, on scholars, writers to enlighten the public, about the dangers so that they uprise against this nuclear weapon. I can tell you: I did the same thing. I quoted him, translated that message in the Christmas card I send to all missions and ambassadors at that time about 27 years ago, the same thing I did it now for present supreme leader. So the whole world know, we are against because of our religious obligation. " Allah forbids the atom bomb.But according to an IAEA report, in 1987 Iran was in touch with a clandestine nuclear supply network. The IAEA took it as a clear indication that Khomeini's Iran was indeed interested in the atom bomb. "Not everybody in Iran was happy with Khomeini's decision not to continue developing a nuclear bomb. One of them for example, the number two in the regime, Rafsanjani, thought that Iran should pursue this path. Maybe today he thinks differently but at that time in the mid-eighties he sent his delegates to meet secretly with Dr Abdul Quadeer Kahn in Dubai and they started the nuclear negotiation that would evolve through huge relations between Iran and Abdul Quadeer Kahn and his network." Iran was said to have done business with nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Kahn, whilst he was based in Holland. So did The Netherlands play a part in the Iranian plans for a bomb? Kahn, a Pakistani, was at Delft University of Technology at the time. He looks back on those days with warm feelings. "What I know, I know through Delft." In 1972, Kahn got a job with Urenco in Almelo, in the Netherlands. This company produced enriched uranium, using centrifuges.The technology was top secret because it could be used for making nuclear bombs.But Kahn secretly copied confidential information. And more.He was also keen on parts of the centrifuge that did not pass quality control.In 2004, one of Kahn's former colleagues admitted knowledge of this. Any parts that did not come up to the tolerances were tossed in a bin.They just lay there. No one cared.So Abdul saw them lying around there and took them home.No one objected. No one checked it. It was just there. In October 1975, the Dutch authorities became aware of Kahn's espionage.But Kahn was not arrested.The Ministry of Economic Affairs had him moved to a different company.That was all.But Kahn sensed danger and went back to his native country, Pakistan.There he was appointed head of the country's atomic programme, with great success. In 1998, Pakistan tested its first nuclear bomb...with thanks to the Netherlands. I hope everything is well in the Netherlands.I send my warmest regards.Goodbye. But Pakistan was not the only country to benefit from Kahn's expertise.The former Urenco employee grew into an international illegal wholesaler of nuclear secrets.Those willing to pay could buy nuclear arms from Kahn.North Korea was a satisfied customer.It's not clear if Kahn helped out Iran as well. how important has he (Kahn) been to the nuclear program of Iran?No role. "Kahn was a major supplier of technology to Iran for the enrichment program. That's clear. There is no doubt about it. He provided them with hardware and with designs." Robert Kelley has a lot of experience with countries that want an atom bomb on the quiet.As a UN inspector he visited Iraq among other places, and was one of IAEA's highest-ranking people until he retired in 2005. Has he made a big difference to Iran's nuclear program?Absolutely yes, because he provided information that gave them many years head start if they had decided to do it on their own. So Kahn was a great help. So you say Dr Kahn has played little part in the development of Iran's nuclear program?If you ask ten times and mention Mr Kahn, my question is we have nothing to do with Mr Kahn. Iran wouldn't be where it is today without Kahn? No certainly not, unless they found someone else to steal information for them because he gave them information that was vetted information from Urenco and allowed them not to do trial and error to take it where they are. "So Iran's nuclear program is a bit made in Holland?" "You really want me to answer that on camera?! That's inappropriate is it not?" "I am only pushing the issue Dr. Soltanieh because Kahn as you know stole the designs in Holland and I work for a Dutch program so that is why I am interested to know whether Iran's nuclear program maybe also be little bit made in Holland." "Never, ever. Never, ever." There's always a dispute between historians whether history is moved by people or by social phenomena. I would say that he is a proof that history is sometimes moved by people. If he didn't exist or if the Americans had agreed to Mossad's request to take him out long before he was discovered and taken of his duty. I would say..Mossad asked for him to be killed? Yeah, Mossad basically.. or, suggested, or proposed the idea to take him out because it was clear, it was not clear how dangerous he was, but it was clear that this guy was the world's proliferator that he is putting in danger world peace because of his actions to eh sell know how and machinery.What happened to the request? The Americans declined that completely. Kahn was allowed to live.And Iran continued to enrich uranium for years, in secret, using centrifuges.In 2002, the IAEA discovered that Iran was building an underground factory near the city of Natanz. "This is Natanz, this where the centrifuges are, they're buried underneath here, these were huge excavations .. they put something which is called a burster slab which is a piece of concrete on top of the building so if a penetrating bomb comes in, the bomb thinks it'*** the building and blows up." "What is the significance of Natanz when it comes to Iran's alleged ambitions in trying to build a nuclear weapon?" "It's a huge factory, was designed to contain something like 50.000 centrifuges which would produce far more enriched uranium than you could imagine them having any need for. So it's of a scale that only makes sense when you have a weapons program." The discovery caused international commotion.The UN Security Council discussed it and demanded that Iran stop enriching uranium. of course we will not do that, they said we are not suspending the construction and completion of heavy water reactor, of course we will not do that, because we are having one million patients struggling with cancer and they need regular isotopes, we have to speed up to complete this reactor to produce regular isotopes! Why shall we stop this reactor?" Arak, this is a reactor they say they build for medical isotopes, my assessment it is not a very good choice for medical isotopes. "Why?" Too big, it's located too far from hospitals, it was also being done in secret.The medical isotopes you want to use to put into people have short half lives, they decay quickly and they disappear, and so if you produce the medical isotopes hundreds of miles from where you want to use them then they will decay before you get them where you want. So you like to do this in something like the Teheran research reactor, right in Teheran where the biggest hospitals are likely to be." The Iranian president, Ahmadinejad, has repeatedly refused to suspend the programme.The boycotts and possible attacks on Iran are things he can live with. Yes, some few Western countries including United States, you're right, might use this as a pretext to put pressure on Iran. But, shall I bow to the pressure? Which is not right. Shall I lose the inalienable right? Shall I deprive my Iranian nation, Iranian generations, over 70 million Iranians of access to technology? Because of this kind of allegations? Of course we cannot do that. And in the history my official, my government and myself will never be forgiven to do such a mistake. Iran continues today to produce enriched uranium and heavy water.Not for a bomb, they say, but for cheap energy and for cancer medication.Israel and the US do not believe any of it.So who's right? The answer was supposedly supplied by the IAEA in 2009. Iran has a nuclear arms programme.It did secret tests that point to the development of such arms.This is according to a leaked report by the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog. But the IAEA's information was wrong, according to Robert Kelley. "I agree they might still be working towards the development of a bomb. That's clear. The report doesn't prove it. The few paragraphs that have information that is supposedly current are very weakly sourced, it is very difficult to read those and understand where the information came from or if the information is accurate and one of the paragraphs concerns information that is probably inaccurate. It's very easy to go back and see that particular document is probably a forgery." This is the contested document. It's two pages long and written in Farsi, the language of Iran.The subject line reads 'Neutron Initiator'. "A neutron initiator is a little device that starts the chain reaction in a nuclear bomb A nuclear bomb will not go off without this little pulse of neutrons that has to occur just at the right time." "You just give me a copy of things, typed in Farsi, everybody in the whole world could go to Microsoft Word and just type that in Farsi. How can you prove that this related to Iran? (tilt down) This is good point that you show me. "People suspect the current document is a forgery because of language, because of the way the Farsi language is used, it would appear that the report was not written by a native Farsi speaker, you will think that a genuine classified document from Iran would be written by a native Farsi speaker, so there are words and phrases that just don't seem genuine to people who speak Farsi." "That is what I'm saying. Nobody could believe that. That these kind of things are for real. They are forged and fabricated. They just did it hastily, typing in Farsi and just putting a signature and a emblem from the Ministry of Defense, of course anybody could do it in a matter of seconds, and they gave it to the Agency." The document came into the possession of the IAEA in 2009.At the time, Mohamed ElBaradei from Egypt was in charge. If you go to Mohamed el-Baradei's memoires you can see he was very skeptical of the documents, because he had no way of sourcing where it came from, because the markings like the confidentiality, the dates, the heading were all missing, you really have to take it on faith that this document is genuine. It's just two typed pages with no other information about them. So I think they viewed it very skeptically and put it aside." "I took one of these stamps, confidentiality stamps, in Farsi, from my office and I went and officially said in the board of governors, mister el Baradei, the director-general, I'm ready to give, to lend it to you to give to the ambassador of America so that from now on they cannot forget to stamp all these documents against Iran. This is a fact! The CIA is doing a very lousy job, you know, they just wanted hastily give something against Iran and forgot to stamp at least some classifications! " Mohamed ElBaradei did not trust the document.But it was still part of the report after he left. "it tells me that they were, I would say, dishonest in not saying we threw this document out once before, but now we're going back to look at it again. They could have changed their minds, maybe they are convinced it is true and genuineI think would have been much more honest to say the world knows that we've looked at this document before and judged it to be a forgery and we no longer think it is a forgery because.. but I think the reasons why people think it's a forgery are still there and are correct and the Agency is not giving both sides of the issue." The IAEA refused to respond.Instead, the UN agency simply referred us back to its report. Whatever the IAEA says, Israel relies on its own sources and is convinced of Iran's nuclear ambitions. Yet Israel is currently the only Middle-Eastern country that has an atom bomb.So how can they say that Iran having nuclear arms is totally unacceptable? According to Avner Cohen, they consider it vital to maintain that monopoly. "It allows Israel on various occasions to say politically no to various kinds of request or demands that come from the world community. In particular vis-à-vis the Palestinians. It allows Israel to keep a certain kind of strength. Even vis-à-vis the United States on various issues. So I believe that indeed one of the invisible, underlying but important elements in this confrontation between Iran and Israel is something that doesn't get that much attention in public, and that's Israel's desire to go into a great deal of pain including the possibility of war in order to protect and to shield that strategic asset called nuclear monopoly. Benign but it's important. " But Israel says it fears more than just losing its nuclear monopoly. ", most people think that this is very unlikely, that out of the blue a Iranian bomb would be dropped on Tel Aviv, because everybody understand what would be the consequences of that. There would not be a Iran as we know it as well. But you know, a country that its leaders are full off messianic, Islamic fervor, who knows how far they can go with their apocalyptic vision. " The Zionist regimeis on a road to nowhere.With your help, God,your wish will soon be fulfilled.This wicked entity will soondisappear from history.Death to Israel. "I would point out that worldwide there is only one country in the world, only one, that publicly calls for the destruction of another country, and this is Iran calling for the destruction of Israel." It's not the first time that Israel has felt threatened by a country that it believes to have an atom bomb. In 1981, Israeli fighter jets flew deep into Iraqi airspace.They bombed a nuclear reactor under construction: Osirak.Israel was sure that Saddam Hussein wanted to use it to produce a nuclear bomb. "I would say if we want to draw a lesson from Israeli determination to prevent a country that calls for its destruction to reach a capability to do that, then Osirak is a very good example." All Arabs are looking up to the sky now.They have no ideawhat they're looking at. Israel celebrated the attack on Osirak as a resounding success.But a defence think tank in Oslo has a very different opinion.The Iraqi nuclear reactor was totally unsuited for building a bomb, according to historian Malfrid Braut-Hegghamer. "It would have been very difficult and very foolhardily for Iraq to do so. And there are, I haven't found any indications that the Iraqi's intended to use the reactor for the purposes of a weapons program.Why would it have been foolhardily?Because the reactor was under IAEA safeguards. And so..Which means? Which means that it was inspected regularly and any attempt to divert the reactor would have been detected and certainly on this scale would have been detectedBecause diverting the reactor means?Means taking material out of the reactor that was intended for, you know, for the production of nuclear weapons rather than nuclear research and nuclear fuel." Ironically, in 1981, order to prevent another attack on Iraq, Hussein decided to order the production of an atom bomb after all. "He gave his scientists carte blanche to set up a nuclear weapons program and he told them that you can have whatever you need to be able to do this." Braut-Hegghamer argues that the Israeli attack backfired completely. "And by that I mean that it produced a nuclear weapons program that wasn't there before and within a decade Iraq was on the threshold towards a nuclear weapons capability according to IAEA officials so that doesn't sound to me like a resounding success." Netanyahu, AIPAC " It is the lessons from Osirak are shaping debates in Israel but also elsewhere and this case is held up as an example of a success story of attacking nuclear infrastructure when in fact it should there are lessons from this case suggesting that such attacks can make things worse in the long term." Israel is convinced of ***'ite bomb and is threatening military intervention.Iran is determined to carry on its programme, regardless of international pressure. As the global debate rumbles on, what will it take to break the current stalemate?