Five Thirty Eight Crunches The Numbers

>>> IF SOMEONE SAYS IT'S A SMALL WORLD, THAT CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPLY TO ANYBODY SEARCHING FOR FLIGHT 370 AND THERE'S NOTHING ABOUT A JUMBO JET WHEN IT'S MISSING IN THE SIZE OF ABOUT THE CONTINENTAL OF THE UNITED STATES, 3 MILLION SQUARE MILES. CARL IS A WRITER FOR 538.COM WHICH LAUNCHED YESTERDAY. CONGRATS ON THE LAUNCH. THIS IS INTERESTING. HELP US UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU DO COULD HELP MAYBE FIND THIS PLANE. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT VAST OCEAN, WHAT DO YOU SEE? A GRID? AND THEN IT BECOMES, OH, I GET IT'S THERE AS OPPOSED TO THERE? >> IT PRETTY MUCH COMES DOWN TO THAT. IF YOU THINK THAT THEY HAVE THE SAME CHANCE, THEN YOU HAVE NO CHANCE OF FINDING IT ANY TIME SOON. THESE STATISTICAL TOOLS ARE NOT MAGIC BUT MAY HELP MAKE IT MORE EFFICIENT AND MORE SMARTER. >> YOU WOULD START ON, WHAT, THE PRESUMED FLIGHT PATH, THE LAST TURN, SOMETHING LIKE THAT? >> ANYTHING YOU HAVE. INFORMATION FROM THE SATELLITE. THE KEY THINGS ABOUT THESE TOOLS IS YOU'RE ALWAYS QUESTIONING YOUR ASSUMPTIONS AND INCORPORATING NEW INFORMATION. THESE ARE TOOLS THAT HELP YOU TAKE SOME OF THE ERROR AND GUESSWORK OUT OF HOW TO INCORPORATE IT. >> WHAT ABOUT MOTIVES OR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS IN WHICH IT HAPPENED? SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF AVIATION AND THE HISTORY OF TERRORISM OR HISTORY OF ACCIDENTS S. THERE A WAY TO EXTRAPOLATE ANYTHING FROM THAT OR IS EVERY FLIGHT A DIFFERENT STORY? >> BECAUSE THERE'S NO SITUATION LIKE THIS, YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE ONES THAT ARE CLOSEST TO IT. THAT'S WHERE JUDGMENT COMES IN. ULTIMATELY YOU'RE PUTTING A GUESS ON SOME ONE'S BEST GUESS. AIR FRANCE 447 WAS PRETTY DIFFERENT BUT IT'S CLOSE ENOUGH THAT YOU CAN GET INFORMATION FROM IT. >> SO ARE YOU GUYS GOING TO RUN THESE NUMBERS ON YOUR OWN? ARE YOU OFFERING TO HELP MALAYSIANS? >> WE'RE MORE WRITING ABOUT THIS. THERE ARE EXPERTS INCLUDING ON THE 447 SEARCH WHO HAVE DONE THIS AND THIS WAS DONE BACK IN WORLD WAR II TO LOOK FOR MISSING