National Security Network with Joel Rubin

band starts jane king richard s that with you today and now we talk about of course the the hot topic today the dennis than we delete situation by joel was gonna join us he's the deputy director and chief operating officer of the national security network jillwu reactor uh... traveling are at stake at the bombs first of all let's talk about what uh... we can leaks uh... documents intiki that's it you when you lookit all those agnes to get a sense i'll work a lot of trouble in afghanistan has been paid a picture but and concentration that's for sure in fact is air filter and all a lot of what we hear about everyday about the dangers blasted the cockpit filling casualties picture of straight the increasing sophistication of the taliban insurgency the role of pakistan india indicted it's uh... internalize intelligence services unit and and uh... it it really really filled in the blanks in heats up it's troubling into trouble is it more troubling today now that we didn't have that information that have uh... the situation afghanis announcing then a week ago we we know is in pretty bad shape but we didn't have these details who feel significantly worse today because of this information or ido cricket it's any different between last weekend in this week in terms of what's happening on the ground certainly though in terms of perceptions i think will be a different from this let the people inside the government to repeat kinds of reports raw data as as it described i'd be eight days they've got a good be done by end what's been going on for some time and uh... certainly the administration has been grappling with it is as evidenced by their murdered significant policy shift in the bush administration left office to try to make this a higher priority but in terms of the public this is this a lot of new information i don't think you change it the overall view edit top-level but if you want to delve into it in a casual going out there on the web in steve what's that you'll you'll you'll really learned a lot more about the day-to-day difficulties there and i i think those types of you can to like change dynamics and political dynamics on issues like this uh... you know so i was on your website and i was game at bat the national security network which has a great group of really distinguish advisors and leaders in one of the comments was that you support national security measures that are pragmatic unprincipled and leaving aside the the principal well you know involved in our involvement in afghanistan this this information seems to underscore the notion that our involvement there is not very pragmatic that we've been are not likely to have a very positive outcome frothy enormous investment of blood and treasure is that your view and if so wire we still there earn without any clearer plan for de escalation in the disengagement there you could be recruited really great way to describe the question of the yet of of this this policy is that when it actually can be traced back to the date of the president before then he would candida horrible situation in afghanistan the bush administration basically neglected afghanistan for six years after decided to invade iraq without cause and uh... underfunded under resource afghanistan precisely the moment but we could have really made it prepared to change the way uh... people my country we're living in them what they were doing in the early two thousand two and for the pragmatic side okay of sweat seen the administration uses one of trying q maritime put more resources in and get a hold of the situation yet also recognizing that can't be permanent this is not something where we have limitless of phone in people sacrifice and so that the timeline which is only twelve months from now for july of next year is something that separate that a dash of pragmatism into the debate but a few minutes and then kabul and elsewhere in in that region so yellow i hope we hope that can be pragmatic yeah i know it's understood that you know but let's keep it real ok i mean i would've gone much heavier in afghanistan in the beginning i don't see that theoretically we you know we were on their and i would say afghanistan dot afghanistan where they were on a rack right so i'm on the record on that having said that that wasn't or one oh two oh three now or in twenty ten and we've been there approximately eight hundred and seventy four years is still the right idea to go ahead and the afghanistan seeing that it doesn't appear to be working you know if they predicted matrix tricky reaction answer you know and and and you were spot on in your early recommendations i actually was serving at the state department career special at the time we were all trashing ahead of watching the ship move toward iraq it was incredibly frustrating feed the birds the adventure of the bush administration stop investing in afghanistan when we had at the moment still are up problems in afghanistan and uh... there's also this time mahal but not for the flight olympics accepted by this this uh... this problem with pakistan and the potential for instability there and they are trying to thread the needle and i i do think that you cure rising level of sermon and skepticism clearly the congress alone well a couple who had actually doubts about two weeks ago six percent of the democrats voted to to put up a stronger timeline to get out of the war there's going to be a of boat on the supplemental for more war funding uh... at some point this week in the house and there's a lot of anxiety about that boat people are getting actually and i think the strategy to go after all kinda in afghanistan don't work with pakistan destabilize that region and to drawdown forces a year from now begin to move out of the country's is probably the most practical one and in the other side uh... and that could be a media drawdown uh... unconditionally not not physically feasible thing in another as you know i mean you care obviously what opponents of the president that the republicans leadership in particular is continually janeen harking administrations have no timeline c_d_-rom world orifices the ultimatum i think here is the part here's the problem abimael the reason why they are harping on him ought to have no timeline is because there's no appreciable approve min in a situation there which we know is because he was an impossible situation but it strikes rated beginning to withdraw with the situation is bad news it is today is the only option that's worse then beginning to withdrawn now so if we accept that one indication of any there and i don't see any frankly but maybe you do from given your expertise that the situation will be in anyway appreciably better either militarily that matter politically here from now why are why isn't not true that were just plain another year of missouri in order to swallow the same defeat that became inevitable when george bush mismanages this war for the first six years of its existence before opportunities his keep your eye on alone one of them is with general patricia going into afghanistan the sorry brington a heightened sense of urgency car drive already karthik agreed to begin to set up local police and i think the order seven thousand to ten thousand aka leaf it will not be directly under his control which is that they have a breakthrough forest is decentralization of the country's and that's something the cards i have not been good about in the past and descent that there could be the bottom up security that that will help situation opt out of kabul another thing is the reconciliation process and frankly fifty really the timeline is to put significant pressure on karzai and others few get some political field of reconciliation to concentration down because otherwise we're going to be gone and that you rightly point out isn't going to be pretty there when we leave from certainly not for the government that that i've decided not cut deals so that they are a profit together though it is not temple but those are the to think that if i want to keep thinking about certainly businesses and to be clear for our listeners when you talk about mike tyson issue you're talking about idea with the talent uh... begat that merely please subtle mister cooper also are we out there to deal with without them as i understand it karzai is essentially the prime minister of coble and that serious discovered his throughout the country intended only one city uh... it it's been that way for too many years but i think the state department i have we we were arguing for an extension of american forces to the countryside and run for office uh... in all of it with then block that and and kept the american military presence when it was accepted in that country only to the capital city and a m working there as a result of that well required policy let me tie-in of the final piece of great ironies classify procedure because and today that i also hosts of the bill that additional on us embassy and we had a republican or a conservative guess i should say and i can tell us the monday whether republican or the flip and pretend they were always against afghanistan and his basic answer was and he sped opa much change the war the republicans basically he was saying work that we were trying for seven or eight years and that was the right course addicted to take now almost trying to do quote nation building answers about what is the war any tried to do too much with it it's his fault and so when it goes south it'll be a on his lap wrote that that's a good baritone servicemen and women who fought their lives trip that policy executed in any event designed by the bush administration and uh... it doesn't surprise me that there is though arguing such an opportunistic way we have real problems there deterrent headed problems you've got a problem for the nation security and uh... i did to to try to make political hay out of it bulky decision making over six seven years of time is just extraordinarily distracting in an opportunistic and an affront to people who care about the country find it's all about my prediction obama will decide to get out of afghanistan as soon as spot since prices and uh... so kabbalah luck we were on that path does not occur services swinging and they want to how in the war in afghanistan honorable of the war ineptness and unabomber so it was in a way that will be good news because we get out all i had my prediction which is that will brag the taliban will will call it a search when we broke the air similar that what happened in iraq al-qaeda will move all the way back into pakistan and arts security will not be substantially change after one for prediction date if we're lucky and we get the timing right we just might get them on okay is not help sell because they still running out of money they're still desperate you know we're going to put more pakistan pressure on facts there now partly because of the weekends and yet they live in and fox's buses to get out of afghanistan that'll bobek is a great mission accomplished as the battle at it waiting when you're follow-on okay i think i i think that you're on the front page at and and i i think that uh... the administration has been extraordinarily effective at publicly pushing the park bunny and getting things done in terms of the packing up either in their country as well with the acquiescence of the pakistanis and act this is it is not going to look good for anybody in pakistan afghanistan you can't be certain of that and and i think that you're onto something in your in your second affluent at distant local finalized at this time at delight chris has a bomber administration a lot on a little different fronts including afghanistan but i actually think that they have made a significant impacts them it has been a change for the better nowhere near perfect facilities documents et cetera show but think their head in the right direction in that country and i think this legal probably help us pushes in a better direction so there's a little bit of hope that uh... i'm conspiracy theory when we come back unless you want me right now practice for a superior bags jolted from the national title thank you so much we appreciate thank you very much right we'll be right back