Sebastian at Home - Intro to statistics - Bayes rule - Udacity

This test is actually directly taken from a life and you'll smile when you see my problem. I used to travel a lot. It was so bad for a while. I would find myself in a bed not knowing what country I'm in. I kid you not. So let's say, I'm gone 60% of my time and I'm at home only 40% of my time. Now at summer, I live in California and it truly doesn't rain in the summer. Whereas in many of the countries I have traveled to, there's a much higher chance of rain. So let's now say, I lie in my bed, here I am lying in bed, and I wake up and I open the window and I see it's raining. Let's now apply Bayes rule--What do you think is the probability I'm home now that I see it's raining--just give me this one number.