Weekly Weather Webinar for July 25th - July 30th

Hello. This is Meteorologist Keith Stellman with the National Weather Service in Peachtree City. This is the weekly weather briefing for July 25th. Quick Overview We are looking a slightly quieter weather pattern over the next week. However, the weekend looks wet once again across most of GA. We will also look at Tropical Storm Dorian and its longer term outlook. Yearly Rainfall SummaryMacon (1893-2013) This is the yearly rainfall summary for Macon thus far showing that through July 25, the cumulative rainfall for Macon is currently the highest on record, and nearly 2 inches above the previous high mark in 1912. Macon has also had 79 days this year with measurable rain which is the most since 1991. Yearly Rainfall SummaryAtlanta (1879-2013) This is the yearly rainfall summary for Atlanta thus far showing that through July 25, the cumulative rainfall for Atlanta is currently the 4th highest on record, and only 3 inches behind 1st place 1912. Atlanta has also had 79 days this year with measurable rain which is the most since 2003. Water Vapor Satellite imagery from 8AM this morning shows dry air aloft moving through the southeast US which should help keep overall storm coverage lower both Thu and Fri. Our attention for the weekend will shift to the system moving south out of Canada which will ultimately impact our region sat and sun. Here is a forecast for Friday Afternoon showing that GA will see general thunderstorms, particularly in eastern GA (the shaded area is forecast precip). We also see the our weekend weather maker moving through Oklahoma and toward our region. By Saturday PM, we should start to see storms become more widespread across the region as moisture increases ahead of the approaching upper level low which should be located in MS or AL. Rain Chances on Saturday Here are the current rain chances for Saturday showing the north and western portion of GA has the best chance for rain on Saturday with over 60%. The remainder of GA (in yellow) is generally 40%-50% for Saturday. Sunday has the greatest chance to be a washout as the upper level low moves through the region. Some discrepancies exist with the timing of it. These discrepancies in the timing mean that the heavier rain and thunderstorms could come in on Saturday or hold off until Sunday. The model shown here indicates Sunday has the higher chances. "Official" Rainfall through Tuesday Here is the 8 AM Thu official rainfall forecast for our area through Tuesday. Although we are not expecting widespread significant rainfall, some areas could see localized amounts of 2"-3" particularly over the weekend which may cause localized flash flooding. Generally speaking, we are expecting anywhere from 0.50" up to 1.50". Tropical Storm Dorian The latest information on Tropical Storm Dorian indicates that it should remain on a general westerly track through 5 days and its too far out to tell if it will have an impact on the US. For the latest information, please visit the National Hurricane Center. Where will Tropical Storm Dorian go? The ultimate key to Dorian is how strong and how far west the Atlantic ridge extends. Dorian will likely be steered into the weakness between the atlantic ridge and the ridge over the southern plains. Models disagree this far out on the strength and position of that ridge. In summary, we are looking at a more normal weather pattern the next week. The exception will be this weekend, which looks wet with a general 0.5" to 1.5" of new rainfall and localized 2-3" possible. Next week, all eyes will turn to what Dorian does.