Tom Zimmerman - Wfdss and the strategic operational planner

So the goal was set back in 2006 to create a new system that would be scalable, progressive, be applicable to all wildland fires, and it was designated to be the wildland fire decision support system. So this process has been, this is a system that incorporates numerous processes. And this has been worked on for the last 3 and 1/2 years. It was delivered in 2009 for initial production and has been used by all 5 wildland fire agencies, 17 state organizations, numerous Alaska native corporations, and it was used on over 7,700 fires during 2009. And to date, since January 2010, over 5,000 fires already documented in the system. So it is receiving quite a bit of use, showing much success, but it does offer us the ability to document our decisions to provide access to decision analysis tools, and processes and then to provide the capability to pair long-term implementation planning as needed for implementation actions. So it meets the three main components of all the three previous processes. What's happening is that we have greater ability to use these decision support analysis tools, which were done as part of the long-term risk assessments in the previous processes and weren't done to any great extent in the WFSA process, were done for awhile exclusively in the WFIP process, then became very important in the LTIP process. But what we're seeing as we move into this single system, which is now a geo spatially based system housed on the web environment, that's very, it's very quick, very, rapid, very... it's scalable to the complexity of the incident, information is easily shared via computer systems where multiple users can look at a computer system and view a particular analysis. Being geo spatially based, it can layer data layers very quickly and then you can see the situational assessment for a particular incident very fast. It can layer the decision support analysis stuff on top of many other values. And it provides a great deal of information very quickly compared to what we've had in the past. What we were seeing over time in how the SOPL position is important here, is that as we pull up more and more decision support information, many people were not experienced or familiar on how to use that and apply that or how to help that frame and shape their decision space, And, and in some cases, people can view a lot of maps or a lot of information on the computer screen or on the hard copy and it might, might be that the response is, boy this is very nice information. Now, let's go put the fire out. And so there, there's a critical step there that says, well, how do you interpret this information, and what does it mean to you? And what kind of decision space do you have given this situation that's, that's indicated by all this information. And now we have fire spread probability simulation models that provide an indication of where the highest likelihood is for the fire to spread. We have fire behavior models that will show what the fire area might be over time. We have short-term and near-term fire behavior, which gives you some basic fire behavior characteristics very quickly. It's for initial responders to look it at. So the decision maker can then look at this and see where their values are, that, that they're concerned about, where critical infrastructure may be, sensitive natural and cultural resources, what the likelihood that that could be impacted by a fire with no suppression actions taken on it or no delaying actions, or, or what the areas where they would like fire to be present as a natural, natural beneficial process, and what that might impact or how quickly it might get there. So, it's important for someone to be able to say, well, we have this decision support information and this is what it really means. It means that you have a critical area of concern where you don't want fire to occur, but the likelihood of the fire getting there may be a very low probability or low percentage, so you, you're relatively safe in not taking an aggressive action there and putting your resources somewhere else to provide better protection or take aggressive actions Or maybe not taking aggressive actions on the entire fire. Or it may tell you just the reverse, that geez, we have some very high-value resources, and the probability of impact by the fire is very high; what we need to really get in and try to protect those as aggressively as possible, and this fire needs to be put out. And so that, you can begin to frame that decision space and say, well, on some incidents we have a very wide range of decision space and a lot, lot of options we can take and manage if we have scarce resources, we can manage them better. Or in some, some situation, we have a narrow decision space because the alternatives are very focused and there's only a few options here because of the potential impacts. So the SOPL position comes into play either as bringing that set of skills to interpret how this long-term risk assessment, how this decision support information relates to what the decision space might be, what the range of tactics, what the range of response options are. And so this position is critically important in interpreting some of the, much of the information coming through the WFDSS system in helping line officers or decision makers understand what they then have facing them given the information that's available. And without that, some decision makers may understand that, some may not, but to ensure that they really do, it's important for the SOPL position to be utilized. And again, that's back to that set of skills that gives us the ability to to really understand long-term risk assessment and how that relates to management responses. The process we've evolved through over time is very indicative of the state of our knowledge, how the fire management program has changed, how we've changed our ability to respond, how we respond to fires, how we can manage fires, and then, with that, we've responded in changing our capability. And then the SOPL position that we have today, I've stated why that's so important and why it's evolved this way. I think that's a great example of how our capability has expanded to be able to respond to the changing needs in managing wildland fire. And it's important that we don't let limited memory or limited experience get in our way of incorporating this change and expanding our capability fire complexities are changing, and, consequently, the way we respond is changing, and our capability has to change to do that. And going from having nothing to creating a new program to manage fires instead of putting them all out and to accomplish beneficial effects with fire. As the state of our knowledge grew in terms of fire effects and a natural fire, we created a different response. Then going from no positions and no specific skill set, we created specific skill needs in positions to be able to implement that and then that skill set has grown through several different positions we talked about, the Prescribed Natural Fire Manager, the Fire Use Manager, and now the SOPL. And it's important that we continue to retain that skill set, broaden that skill set, and continue to apply that, and all contributes to the increase in our capability and organizational efficiency. And I think that's our goal in dealing with wildland fires is to be more efficient in how we respond to accomplish our objectives better, safer, and for least cost as we can, and all these things contribute to those objectives, so I think it's very important that we continue this.