The Bottom Of Cards - The development of / the emergence of Nigeria

"Charting the Map" Presented by Jean-Christophe Victor Nigeria: Catching up with other emergng nations Today I'm going to talk about Nigeria. It's known for its exploding population, oil, Sharia law, terrorism. I'm going to talk in detail about this growing country but will be forced to resolve many problems in the upcoming decades. Nigeria is in West Africa and opens up to the Gulf of Guinea. Its neighbors include Benin, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. The capital is Abuja and the country's surface area is 900,000 square kilometers. Roughly equal to France and Germany combined. There are 167 million inhabitants. There are about 250 different ethnic groups. But there are three main groups: To the north are the Hausa. To the southwest, the Yoruba and in the southeast, the Ibo. Nigeria is a former British colony. The country becomes independent in 1960. The Nigerian Federation is divided into three regions. Each one controlled by the three main ethnic groups. Power-sharing between the three groups has created tensions. Which leads to the secession of the Biafra Republic in 1967. A region that is populated primarily by the Ibo ethnic group. Three years of civil war followed which results in the deaths of 1 million people and incites the reinclusion of the Ibo in Nigeria. This civil war encourages other ethnic groups to fight for the creation of new federal states. Resulting in 36 states that should secure equal political representation. Nigeria has a distinctive dynamic economy. It's a large agricultural country and 47% of its population works in this industry. Nigeria is the world's largest manioc and yam producer. It also produces cocoa and rubber destined for export. Just 50 years ago, Nigeria was the breadbasket of the west and now Nigeria imports grains as a result of decades of underinvestment. The energy sector has taken precedence over agriculture. Nigeria is known to be a country rich in hydrocarbons. Gas and oil deposits are primarily located in the Niger Delta and offshore in the Gulf of Guinea. The country holds the continent's oil reserves. Nigeria is the world's 12th largest oil producer in 2011, and Africa's #1 producer with 12.5 million barrels per day. But it is at the same time very dependent on its oil reserves. Oil represented 90% of Nigeria's oil exports in 2010 and 70% of the country's revenue. The country has experienced strong growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 9%. It's Africa's second economic power behind South Africa. International firms such as Dangote have expanded to the rest of Africa and the large Nigerian diaspora is an important economic link notably in China and the United States. Let's look at a global map. Nigeria is considered to be a future emerging country. It's part of the 'Next 11' - a group of 11 countries chosen by Goldman Sachs in 2005 as the next upcoming BRICS. In 2010, in response to this ranking, the Nigeria government unveiled a growth plan that should elevate Nigeria to one of the world's leading powers in 2020 by liberalizing the economy. This map shows the world's 15th largest economies by 2050, according to some estimates. In addition to this economic emergence, the country is becoming more and more active on the international scene. It's very active in West Africa as part of the CEDEAO. Or, the community of West African nations. In 1990, Nigeria, along with other CEDEAO participants, sends a contingency group to Liberia to prevent civil war. Nigeria diplomacy plays a large role in the continent's affairs. It opposed apartheid in South Africa, participatory in UN intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Today, it's now implicated in Darfur, South Sudan. And it's engaged in establishing African unity. Nigeria is lobbying to hold a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. And it's in competition with other African countries such as South Africa. Nigeria also is strong in the film industry, which seems unexpected. Nigeria's 'soft power' is illustrated by its film industry in Lagos. Created 20 years ago, Nollywood is the world's second largest producer of films behind Bollywood in India and ahead of Hollywood in the United States. Films are distributed throughout the country. It also dominates the African market and has led to a pan-African identity. This panoramic view gives us an idea of Nigeria's role in the world economically dynamic, with an influential regional diplomatic presence, and a culture diffused throughout Africa. Yet, Nigeria is a rich country with a population of poor people who are excluded from this growth. 70% of the population lives on less than $1.25 per day. This equates to roughly 100 million people. Plus, 1/3 of the population is illiterate. Secondary school enrollment is just 45%. Less than 10% of young Nigerians go to university. Look at the IDH, the Indice du Developpement Humaine in the different regions of the country. Regional disparities are very high. The south is relatively prosperous, educated, and well taken care of. The north is more poor where educational and sanitary conditions are lacking. For example, the IDH shows that Lagos represents double that of Bauchi state. Economic disparities and the inability of politicians to respond to the populations' needs have incited numerous rebellion movements. Two movements are noteworthy. The first regards the area around the Niger Delta. Oil prosperity hasn't improved the lives of the local population. In fact, it's led to corruption, pork-spending, job destruction in the fishing and agriculture sectors, and increased pollution from oil residue. This photo shows pollution in the Niger Delta. The Ogoniland region, shown here on the map, is particularly concerned. In response to inadequate economic and political action, the MEND, or the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, began attacking oil installations in the mid-2000s set up by oil companies operating in the Delta. The MEND wants a better partition of oil revenue so that it could best serve the people. In response to the violence, the government has created a 'Joint Task Force' comprised of the army and local police. Amnesty agreements were signed between the federal government and militants. But sporadic attacks continue. Oil companies are developing exploratory and exploitative activities more in offshore areas that are less likely to face terrorist attacks. The second factor of instability is the religious factor. Nigeria is divided into a Muslim-majority state and a Christian-majority state. The Muslim north and Christian south make contact in an area known as the 'middle belt', situated in the middle of the country. This geographic opposition between the two monotheistic religions is real but at the same time simplistic. There's an expansion of Islam in the southwest Yoruba state. While some northern states are home to a Christian minority. But cohabitation between the two religions is not easy. Certain northern states are ruled under Sharia law. In 1999, the 12 states shown here on the map decided to expand the application of Koranic law in criminal cases. However, it hasn't been applied to all the states to the same degree. The Boko Haram movement was created in 2002 in Maiduguri in response. It's a militant sect in favor of applying strict Sharia law and the introduction of a moral code in Nigerian politics. Its members have been in armed conflict with the government since 2003. The state's repressive stance led to the death of Mohammed Yusuf, who was the founder of the sect. This made the movement even more radical. Suicide attacks and assassinations increased in the state and internationally. Today the movement is elusive and fragmented. It wants to integrate itself in the global terrorist movement. One last challenge is employment and demographics. Today, 43% of the population is less than 15 years old. Employment is thus crucial. There's 42% unemployment for youth between 15 and 25 years old. This specific population lives in the cities and metropolitan areas. This leads to serious infrastructure problems, especially in Lagos. Lagos had 300,000 inhabitants in 1950. It now has 11 million inhabitants. It will have 19 million inhabitants in 15 years. Nigeria has 167 million people. It's estimated the population will be 400 million in 40 years. It will become the world's fourth largest populated country, after India, China, and the United States. What can we learn from all of this? The country has three major challenges in the upcoming decades. First, control the country's demographics. Second, train and employ Nigerian youth. Lastly, curtail partition between the northern and southern states. Know that movements like Boko Haram or the MEND don't have a large following or a large military capacity that would lead to a coup d'etat. But those groups aren't interested in independence. Crushing the movements using only military means isn't enough towards maintaining Nigerian unity. Bibliography If you would like to know which books we use to prepare the show we invite you to visit the site, arte.tv.